CopyRight @ 1996
08/21/94 limited speculation about technology
1. transport
2. energy
3. raw materials
4. communication
5. agriculture
6. genetics .. maybe in reproduction
PREDICTABLE TECHNOLOGY AND WAR
Predictable Effects of Technology
It is not possible to calculate all of the effects of any
technology or even what technologies will be developed. Still,
some consequences of particular technologies can be described so
as to show how the effects can be looked at from a biological
perspective.
Transport
1. Transport is the first technology to look at. It was boats
that were used to colonize the world. It was transport that
caused the present degree of hybridization. Transport allows
the acquisition and utilization of resources. Pesent transport
technology makes it such that no population on earth is
genetically isoated. Speculation must include transport on this
planet and the consequences of transport beyond this planet. The
easier transportation is between populations, the less speciation
there will be. That is similar to saying that the more
centralized power production is, the less speciation there will
be. How well a technology allows transport through a planetary
gravity well, will greatly effect speciation as will interstellar
transport. For instance, if interstellar transport somehow
becomes easy, human growth dynamics would look like that of
bacteria. Rapid growth and speciation as well as rapid evolution
would occur, unless there was a reason that the populations still
interbred.
If there is easy transportation between the source
population and the colony populations, speciation will occur
slowly because instead of adaptation of the population, there
will be replacement. It is like the case of seabirds. When there
is oil leakage that damages a population, the population loss is
largely replaced from outside populations. This does not allow
significant selection for the survivors of the local population
that might have had survival advantages in the context of the
danger from the oil. Instead, selection is for mobility.
If transport is relatively difficult there will be more
potential for speciation. Two concepts of speciation must be
considered. The first is the speciation like that of early
humans, where it created races that were genetically
differentiated, but still reproductively compatible. The second
concept of speciation is where the populations are relatively
reproductively incompatible in accordance to the biological
species concept. Thge first should be desirable, because it can
promote evolution. The latter, realistically presents dangers to
the source populations, but by definition (Fester and Bester),
may represent human development.
2. Energetics
Characteristics of energy production technologies present
similar problems. If we find a route to limitless clean energy,
we will grow like bacteria. It will remove most of the transport
problem, just in a different way. All characteristics of limiting
factors would change. Selective effects would focus on ability to
live in high density, since space would be the limited resource.
It might be better if our adaptations were for responding to
effeciency, rather than density limitations.
The more independent the technology allows
people to be, the less the need for the cooperation that has
represented human progress.
The first question is about our energy source. Our
technology is already capable of producing just about anything we
want, .. if there is an adequate energy supply. So what kind of
clean energy technology can we muster and what is the consequence
of its nature. If it is complex enough to require centralization,
like a nuclear plant, the consequence will be quite different
than if it is simple and dispersed like solar cells. Energetics
is fundamentally determinate to any species nature. It will
basically determine our social, political, economic and genetic
development.
Another factor will be our utilization of automation. This
is critical because occupation, work, is what has determined most
of our character, up to this point.
3. RESOURCE
One of the most useful ways to describe a living system is a
close examination of all of the individual resources that are
utilized. Energetics is a much more general term to describe life
as an energy system. Resources are what a specie needs to
survive. For humans that includes a biological description of the
resource acquisition and utilization strategies, but it has also
come to mean consideration of economics, wealth, affluence,
status and other factors.
Another fundamental change in ecology relates to the
transition of our simple resource strategies into what we call
economics. The concentration of resources caused by agriculture
fostered both war and politics for the control of the wealth
that was created. It is in the arena called economics that
resource strategy must now be examined. Discussion of energy,
resource availability and transport offer information that must
be viewed in the context of the philosophies and premises of the
particular economic system. In turn, all of these factors will
relate to technology, much of which is not yet developed.
Here are some descriptions of the characteristics of various
energy systems that may be utilized. This is not so much to
describe some possible energy source, but to describe the social
consequence of different types of resource bases. Consider
centralized complex fusion power plants, verses simple dispersed
solar power, verses some hypothetical small portable efficient
clean power unit. In the long run, each would promote different
social consequences. Similar consequences will be caused by
advanced production technologies including automation. To a
large extent, the characteristics of the technologies that we
develop will determine some of our characteristics in the future.
The more complex the techniques, the more we will tend, at least
initially, towards specialization and a corresponding social
form. Simpler, less centralized resource production strategies
would promote an environment socially similar to that of the
tribe. If the resources are centralized, a situation will arise
analogous to the rise of the cities. In that economics and
resources have become so important to war, those with the
resources will have a notable advantage at war. That is in
contrast to the defenseless agricultural cities of history. War
will be forgotten at times, but the potential will never be lost.
It is unlikely that there will be any more imperial wars for the
reasons common in history, but with populations rising as they
are, it can be expected that there will be plenty of war for
other reasons.
Our technology must provide methods of resource production
that are clean and utilize raw materials that are renewable or
near limitless. There is always advantages to simpler forms and
easily maintained types of technology.
Technology will be necessary to produce another stable
ecology for humans. It offers many comforts, but it is also going
to present problems. Advanced automation manufacturing techniques
are going to have profound effects. Many of the characteristics
of our society have been derived from occupational factors. Our
society was formed around occupational specialization. Much of
the structure of the society and individuals life is dictated
by the demands of the resources necessary for life. Automation
could change that. Also, our present social system represents a
balance between the ownership class and the working class.
Advanced mechanization can change that balance.
4. Communication
Communication technology already has caused profound changes
in the world. A communication development that is predictable is
a system that makes personal electronic communication seem like
really talking to the person. The technology must communicate
well enough to convey the clues that are used in face to face
conversation. Present voice telephones do well and video phones
would be better, but it will take refinements in technology and
concept before the system can widely replace physical meeting
such as to effect our social interactions.
Competing groups represent selection.
Yet what is this selection. Perhaps, by most criteria, it would
show development if humans were able to cut down on individual
selective effects in favor of group selection. ('scuze me Wynn
Edwards). Cooperation as a prefered selective effect to
competition.
War
Where does war fit in all this? Humans have developed the
potentials to destroy themselves directly or by destroying their
ecology. So perhaps, in the context of this book, war must be
discussed from the context of how humans can avoid exterminating
themselves. If we inhabit ecologies away from the earth, this
will make things very interesting. There is reason to believe
that we can remove many of the causes of war, but given the
nature of the universe, it would be rather optimistic to say that
we will be likely to do away with war forever.
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